David Warren contends, "When a madman, holding hostages, says his gun is loaded--it is time for the police to shoot him. No need to establish whether he's telling the truth. (Or, whatever the equivalent in international relations.)" Warren's (and everybody's) madman is North Korea. His analysis (and historical) insight seem unassailable.

"There is a good question whether the gun is actually loaded. The seismic experts detected an underground explosion equivalent to only hundreds of tons of TNT, not the several thousand a nuclear explosion should have produced. It is possible the North Koreans tried and failed, that they will try again, with either a plutonium or uranium device -- we know they have raw materials for both. But they are not the technological wizards of the capitalist South, who could certainly produce a working Bomb if they wanted one. (And may soon feel the need.)

After decades of utterly failed diplomacy, and utterly failed intelligence work, we don't know much, except the lessons of history, which we've forgotten. It is quite likely North Korea would no longer be with us, had Bill Clinton's U.S. administration not thrown it a vastly generous technological and humanitarian lifeline in return for its threats in 1994, or had the South Koreans, with U.S. encouragement, not propped it up on an even more extravagant scale -- fear being the inspiration for stupidity.

From everything we can observe at a distance, two reasonably plain propositions emerge. The first is that the North Korean regime, and the country in its possession, is again on the point of economic, social, and general collapse. And the second, following from this, is that their defences are by no means ship-shape."

<snip>

"From John Bolton's remarks at the U.N., and several statements in Washington, we can see that the Bush administration, at least, has seen through this rather pathetic ruse. What we need, instead of a fresh aid package, is to cut off the regime from all Western contact and help, including all the pointless diplomatic chatter that encourages more stunts, and all the humanitarian aid that seldom gets through to its intended recipients anyway. Step up anti-missile defences, and as I've argued for years, invite Japan, South Korea, and all other regional allies to join NATO. This, moreover, is a precaution against the aggressive intentions of China -- the smooth fist behind North Korea's spiky glove."

The US has conditioned North Korea to expect benefit from belligerence...
 
"Given the ease with which the North Korean leaders suckered ambassador Jimmy Carter, and the Clinton administration, in 1994, they know big threats can earn them big rewards. And with the Democrats poised to make large advances in the mid-term U.S. Congressional elections, they may be negotiating with idiots again, soon."

The spirit of Neville Chamberlain lives on.