Apparently al Qaeda's leadership does not read (Jason Blair's) The New York Times. Otherwise, how could those industrious fellows be so sour about their prospects? Everyone knows (except perhaps al Qaeda) that for every terrorist we kill or detain, scores of willing jihadists jump in line to take their place. This is American Media fact. Then comes a
release by CENTCOM at West Point's
Combating Terrorism Center, purportedly authored by those who we assume able to assess their own progress, suggesting that perhaps things aren't going quite so well for our partially acknowledged enemy. (Thanks to Power Line Blog for the heads-up.)
Bin Laden to Zarqawi: We're Not Doing So Well! From Power Line... (Notes in brackets are from Power Line.)
"You have to plow through a lot of palaver to get to the substance of the letter. What I think is most interesting is the picture that it paints of al Qaeda's prospects, especially in light of the recently-leaked fragments of the National Intelligence Estimate purportedly saying that the Iraq war has been a recruiting bonanza for al Qaeda, and that al Qaeda's numbers and support are ever-increasing. Al Qaeda itself seems to see its position quite differently. The letter says:
The path is long and difficult, and the enemy isn't easy, for he is great and numerous and he can take quite a bit of punishment as well. [Ed.: This is very different from how al Qaeda wrote about the U.S. after the flight from Somalia.]
I command you, my brother, and I am your brother and I have nothing except these words that are between the two of us and God as the third party, that you send messengers from your end to Waziristan so that they meet with the brothers of the leadership, and the rational and experienced people and the shaykhs here, because you have a greater chance to send messengers (brothers that you choose) than your brothers have here. [So al Qaeda's leadership is so pinned down that they can't even send messengers to Iraq.]
I am now on a visit to them and I am writing you this letter as I am with them, and they have some comments about some of your circumstances, may God guide you, with due confidence, affection, respect, and esteem. They wish that they had a way to talk to you and advise you, and to guide and instruct you; however, they too are occupied with vicious enemies here. [That would be us, I assume.] They are also weak, and we ask God that He strengthen them and mend their fractures. They have many of their own problems, but they are people of reason, experience, and sound, beneficial knowledge. [Note: al Qaeda's leadership is "weak."]
Know that we, like all the mujahidin, are still weak. We are in the stage of weakness and a state of paucity. We have not yet reached a level of stability. We have no alternative but to not squander any element of the foundations of strength, or any helper or supporter.
But wait! Where are all those millions of jihadists who are supposedly flocking to al Qaeda's banner because of the Iraq war? They apparently are invisible to the organization's leadership, which sees al Qaeda as "weak," "in the stage of weakness" and in "a state of paucity." Paucity would mean not enough recruits and support."
<snip>
"The operative who wrote the letter gets one thing right. He tells Zarqawi that he shouldn't worry about carrying out too many attacks, but rather should focus on simply keeping the "insurgency" going:
The most important thing is that you continue in your jihad in Iraq, and that you be patient and forbearing, even in weakness, and even with fewer operations; even if each day had half of the number of current daily operations, that is not a problem, or even less than that. So, do not be hasty. The most important thing is that the jihad continues with steadfastness and firm rooting, and that it grows in terms of supporters, strength, clarity of justification, and visible proof each day. Indeed, prolonging the war is in our interest, with God's permission.
That's right: there is an election in November.
One last thing. Unless I'm misreading the letter, it implies that al Qaeda's top leadership was, at the time of writing, in Waziristan, an area of western Pakistan that has long been suspected of harboring bin Laden and Zawahiri."
If you don't own your own media outlet, tell a friend.
